Football Over Under Explained
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by Jeremy Martin
Mid to late November is when weather situations start to become an increased concern for the oddsmakers responsible for setting football lines. With winter quickly approaching, bookies must pay increased attention to weather reports for cities all across the country. Adverse weather can have serious effects on the outcome of a football game. Failing to recognize weather as a factor can have dire consequences for the sportsbooks.
Weather is a major handicapping tool of the professional bettors, or 'wise guys,' according to Tony Sinisi, odds director for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the firm responsible for supplying odds to most of the sports books in Nevada. The public or 'square' bettors don't really factor weather into their bets unless they are 'hit over the head' with the information, he said. When weather is involved, therefore, the bookie must set his line in such a fashion to have the best chance for balanced action between the two groups.
The most serious weather situations are wind and heavy downpour. The wind can wreak havoc on the kicking game and rain can cause fumbles as well as minimize the passing game. Snow is also a concern if it is coming down hard. A light snow isn't really going to affect the game in most cases.
Bad weather has the most serious affect on 'totals' in the NFL and college football. Because the kicking game is diminished in bad weather situations, bookmakers expect there to be missed field goals and bad punts. The wise guys play the 'under' when the weather is at its worst.
'You are looking for the extremes of all of it,' said Sinisi. 'You are looking for the exceedingly cold or out of the ordinary high winds or heavy (rain). A perfect example of that is that Miami/Pittsburgh game (week three in the NFL). (The rain) was just torrential for the whole (game). That's the extreme that you have to be concerned about.'
The posted total for that game was 31 at most sportsbooks. The Steelers won the game 13-3 and the smart bettors who factored the forecast into their wagers made out with a nice easy profit.
While weather can affect the total for football games, the oddsmakers also factor it into the lines for sides as well. Although not nearly as common as the total, weather can bring two teams that are mismatched a little closer together.
'A team that is a 24-point favorite over another team, well, it comes out that (there will) be high winds and a 90 percent chance of rain, (the professional bettors) will look at the underdog a little bit more and I would too because of that factor,' said Sinisi. 'In sports there are random factors but weather is adding another dimension in the randomness of the game. I think there is the tendency to lower the point spread a little bit under those circumstances. (Weather) can be an equalizer in terms of talent.'
'If you have a passing team against a running team, the line may drop, but not nearly as significantly as the total,' added Richard B. Dressler, race and sports book manager for the Imperial Palace in Las Vegas. '(The total) is your main concern as a bookmaker. If it is snowing, you can't play your game if you are a better team. Maybe the other team gets an edge from it. But them again, maybe they slip and slide and fall more too. There's no telling which side it will affect.'
Since weather can bring a large underdog a little closer to it's competition, it is obvious to conclude that weather plays into college games more than the pros. There aren't many double-digit spreads in the NFL while there are many huge lines each weekend in college ball.
Bookmakers in this day and age have it much better than their contemporaries did in the 1970s and 1980s. As technology has improved, so has the accuracy of weather information. Today bookies have a number of top-notch sites on the Internet where they can get instant up-to-date weather information. The forecasts are also much more accurate than they were in the past. Despite these factors, even the top prognosticators cannot determine the weather 100 percent.
'It's absolutely better than it was 10-20 years ago,' said Sinisi. 'There is still that ambiguity of when it is going to hit. There's a large chance that it is not going to hit when you might have thought it was. It's not an exact science.'
Dressler finds that simple word of mouth can often be his best source of up-to-the-minute weather info. When he wants to know the exact weather before game time if he is considering a line move, he checks the message board at one of his favorite online resources, EveryEdge.com.
'My thing here says there is a 60-65 percent chance of snow in Green Bay,' he commented. 'I go into the forum. I post, 'Is there anyone in here from Green Bay, what is the weather like? Stick your head out the window.' In five minutes I have a guy telling me what the weather is.'
While weather is mostly a tool of the professional bettors, the public does factor it in to their wagers if it is highly publicized, according to Sinisi. 'It could be an NFL game where all week where they are talking about how bad the weather is going to be in Green Bay on a particular Sunday. If you are getting that on SportsCenter every night you might get the public. If it is not well publicized, I don't think you are going to (see) the general public play the weather.'
There are certain weather factors that are well known to the public, however. One of them is the idea that the teams from Florida go not play well in late season games in bad weather situations. Sinisi said that there is some truth to that notion.
'I think there is something too that,' he said. I have seen the Dolphins play up in Buffalo enough and I see their pained expressions on the sidelines. That certainly can come into play.'
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Are you great at predicting the final score of a team and want to put your money where your mouth is?
Over Under betting is a good way to do this very thing, and it is a wagering technique often overlooked by novice football bettors. On the other hand, professional gamblers are the first to tell you that it is a key way to make money from sports betting in addition to the other bets you place on your favorite team.
Over Under Betting Football Explained
We explain the Over Under bets in detail with examples in American Football and European Football. Learn to read the odds and what strategies can you use.
Football Over Under Betting Explained
Most bettors are familiar with the classic win/lose bet, or the Money Line. With your basic money line odds, you can bet on whether or not a team will win. What emerges here is a favorite and an underdog which have their betting strategy perspective. However, this does not examine what the final score will be. Evaluating how many points the winning team will accumulate is the magic in football over/under betting.
How Over Under Betting is Played Online
Depending on which online sportsbook you use, the way that over/under betting will be represented is by placing a proposed final combined score next to the two teams before the game begins. Once the game begins, you will no longer be able to change your bet.
For example, it will list a game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Cleveland Browns as 55. This means that the game points totals from each team will combine to be at least 55 points. A bettor will decide to take the Over or Under of that score.
Football Over Under Explained Tv
In European Football it could be be an Over Under 4 for Manchester United vs Liverpool. If a bettor selects the Over and the game ends Manchester United 3 – 2 Liverpool then you win the Over bet, as the combined final score is Over 4. Under bettors lose the bet.
Calculating Over Under Odds
With a win/lose bet, there is always a set of odds that have a negative number and a positive number when it comes to Vegas Odds or American Odds. For this reason, it can be confusing to see that in Over Under betting the two teams playing a game against each other may have odds that both have negative numbers.
For the example of the Colts vs. the Browns, the odds may be -150 Over or – 150 Under.
This is rarely the case but here is how sportsbooks determine odds. It is a game of supply and demand, If for example most bettors take the Under then the odds will increase for the Under reducing its payout or value, and making the Over more valuable or bigger payout. The odds could end up looking something like -200 Under and 150 Over. In other words, a $200 Under bet would payout $100 dollars and a $100 Over bet would payout $150. The more bettors take the Under the more the odds will shift.
If you understand the money lines system of odds, you should have no problem grasping the odds used in over/under betting. To recap, money lines have positive and negative numbers. Typically, the positive numbers are the easiest to calculate if you use a $100 bet. For instance, a +150 bet means that you will win $150, a +350 means you win $350, etc.
For negative money lines odds, the same is not true. Instead, you will always have math to figure out. Thankfully, we live in the age of the internet and this means we no longer need to write these calculations out by hand. Simply search for an online betting calculator for money lines and put in the numbers to see how much you will win.
To illustrate the point, -75 odds will give $133.33 on a $100 bet.
For other negative odds, you can expect $90.91 for -110, $40 for -250, $13.30 for -750, etc.
Which is the Value Bet of the two? That is were handicapping skills come in on any sport. It is an integral part of a betting strategy and the cornerstone of being profitable. Developing a handicapping system is the reason most bettors quit, it takes time a lot of it. That is why many programmers developed Handicapping Sports Betting Software for their successfull betting systems. What the software does is analyze all of the variables and reduce the handicapping time to seconds. The goal of using handicapping software is to analyze is the betting opportunity is 60% or more a Value Bet or not.
Point Spreads in Over Under Betting
Not every betting site will provide an option for point spreads in over/under betting. Regardless, when they do, it means that you have a likelihood of higher risk and therefore more winnings from the bet. You will be able to recognize point spreads because they will have an additional number next to the odds that have decimal points.
These decimal point numbers mean that the combined score must surpass the given number by a certain amount of points.
For example, if the Colts vs. Browns have 55 (-150 Over 3.5), then you know that the combined score must be four points above 55 (or at least 59) in order to win the bet. Point spreads added to over/under betting are typically 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5. In spite of this, do not be surprised if you see a 9.5 or 12.5 point spread. Clearly, the higher the number in a point spread, the higher the risk, and the bigger the payout.
And if you are asking why the point spread ends with a .5 it is to avoid a draw in the bet, if the final combined score is 58 then you lose, 59 you win.
Best Over Under Betting Tip
Most betting sites want your business and they do not want to tell you that one of the best wagering strategies is to go where you feel you will make the most profit. In other words, if you calculated the odds at one website and do not like the amount you will win, there is still hope. Simply log in at another wagering website and see if their Over Under betting odds are more profitable.
Clearly, sportsbooks already know that this is the strategy for most online bettors. For this reason, the websites will often over-compensate for bad odds. In order to keep you on their website and placing bets, they may offer you free bets or bonus bets on bad odds days. Depending on how they operate, it could be your chance to help them while helping yourself to an over/under bet that you never paid for — and therefore cannot lose.
Soon on our Homepage bettors will be able to check which betting site offers the best odds for the same bet.